Just in Time For the Barbie Movie – The Top Ten Kens

As the Ken behind KensTrends, I had an idea a few years ago for a list of the Top Ten Kens. My family members insisted that I am a serious blogger and shouldn’t go there. But with the upcoming release of what is certain to be the runaway movie hit of the summer of 2023, my wife (whose name is not Barbie, thanks for asking)  gave me the ok, and my kids agreed.  So, in honor of the July 21, 2023 release of The Barbie Movie, here is the KensTrends list of the Top Ten Kens. Before you totally write it off, Ryan Gosling, who plays Ken, says it’s the best script he has ever read, and it is written and directed by Academy Award nominee Greta Gerwig. So I am curious to see it, but I will not be registering for a week at the Barbie Dreamhouse currently available on Airbnb.

It’s my blog, so my rules and my picks.  So here are the rules. First, our Kens can be actual or fictional. I am a Kenneth, more often a Ken, and sometimes a Kenny. Kens, Kenneths and Kennys are all eligible. My apologies to Kendall Roy, who has had a tough year and to Kendall Jenner, although I try to be inclusive. For cases with a Ken Jr. and a Ken Sr. and even a Ken III or Trey, we will count them as one.

So Here We Go (In Barbie Pink)
The KensTrends List of The Top Ten Kens

10. Kenny Loggins 
Whether with his partner Jim Messina or on his own, Kenny Loggins was one of the top soft rock artists in the 70s and 80s. Later, he wrote and performed some iconic hits for blockbuster movies.  His “Danger Zone” was brought back for the top summer movie of 2022, Top Gun Maverick. Here is a spoiler, another Ken will be involved in the top summer movie of 2023. Loggins also wrote and performed the title song for “Footloose”, and “I’m Alright” for Caddyshack. He has won two Grammy Awards and sold over 25 million albums.  Only one of his songs “Angry Eyes” is on my Spotify favorites playlist.  That is one more than Kenny Rogers and Kenny G who ranked higher on this list.


Kenny Loggins “Danger Zone” from Top Gun Maverick 

9. Kenny G
Kenneth Bruce Gorelick, better known as Kenny G, is an American smooth jazz saxophonist, composer and producer whose music can be heard in elevators everywhere. One of his songs, “Songbird” somehow made it onto my wedding video (but not my Spotify playlist). Kenny’s brand of smooth “pop” jazz has received a lot of criticism from more serious jazz musicians envious of his commercial success. His 75 million albums sold are the most ever by any instrumental artist, but he only ranks second for albums sold by a Ken. I’ve actually referred to myself as Kenny S on occasion.

8. Ken Norton and Ken Norton Jr.
Yes, this is one of two cases where we get two or even three Kens for the price of one. Ken Norton took up boxing in the Marines and is best known for his three fights with Muhammad Ali. In the first fight, he broke Ali’s jaw and won a split decision, earning him the World Heavyweight Championship. He lost two subsequent fights to Ali in close and controversial decisions. If you can beat ”The Greatest”, that makes you pretty great yourself. Norton was ranked the 22nd best heavyweight of all time which certainly qualifies him for a spot in the top ten Kens.

But, there’s more. One of his four children, Ken Norton Jr. was a Pro Bowl linebacker who was the first to play on three consecutive Super Bowl winners and is now a succesful coach. He scored a touchdown in Super Bowl XXVII and  celebrated by going into a boxing stance and throwing punches into the goalpost in honor of his father. Norton Jr. also has three children including Ken Norton III, now an assistant coach with the Chicago Bears.

The Ken that broke Ali’s jaw – AP Photo Jeff Robbins

7. Kenny McCormick:
Kenny McCormick may not be a household name, he hasn’t sold 25 million records or hit 630 home runs, but Kenny gets recognition for dying 126 times on South Park. For those of you scoring at home, that is the equivalent of 14 cats. “Oh my God, they killed Kenny!” became a popular catch phrase on South Park, now in its 26th season on Comedy Central. Killing Kenny was a running gag on the animated comedy. For the first six years of the series, Kenny would suffer an excruciating death in nearly every episode, only to return in the next show like nothing happened. Creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone got tired of killing Kenny and killed him only occasionally after season 6. But 126 deaths clearly wins a spot on the Top Ten Kens.

Kenny in one of his livelier moments – By Comedy Central Press

6. Ken Stabler
I have a love-hate relationship with Hall of Fame quarterback Ken “The Snake” Stabler who was named AFC player of the year in 1974 and 1976 and led the Oakland Raiders to a Super Bowl championship in 1977. I personally took on the nickname of “the Snake” as the left handed quarterback of the Georgetown MBA intramural football team years ago. I am also the proud owner of an autographed Stabler jersey.

But the one thing that stands out to me about Stabler is one play in 1974. My Miami Dolphins had gone undefeated in 1972 and won another Super Bowl after the 1973 season.  In 1974, three of their top players defected to the short-lived World Football League. Still, the Dolphins led their playoff game with the Raiders 26-21. With 24 seconds left. Stabler threw a desperation pass into a “Sea of Hands” in the end zone that was somehow caught by Clarence Davis, breaking the hearts of Dolphins fans who would continue to have their hearts broken for the next 50 years.

Hey! That’s Ken from KensTrends showing off his autographed Stabler Jersey.

5. Ken Griffey Sr. and Ken Griffey Jr.
Ken Griffey Sr. was a very good major league baseball player. He hit nearly .300 over 19 years, was a three-time all-star and was a key cog in the “Big Red Machine” Cincinnati Reds team that won World Championships in 1975 and 1976. But that’s not nearly enough to make the list of Top Ten Kens. A total of 88 Kens have made the major leagues and Griffey Sr. was a disappointing twelfth out of that group according to Ainsworth Sports.

Only one Ken has made baseball’s Hall of Fame. His son, Ken Griffey Jr. who hit 630 home runs, fifth most of all time. In 1990, The Griffey’s became the first father and son ever to play on the same team. Together, it’s a no-brainer. Like the Nortons, there is a third generation Griffey, Trey Griffey (Ken III) who was a star receiver at the University of Arizona. He made it to the practice squad on 3 NFL teams but never made an active roster. Still, I like baseball more than boxing, so I’m listing the Griffeys ahead or the Nortons.

The Griffeys – (Bill Chan / The Associated Press)

4. Ken Burns
Ken Burns is probably best known for the Ken Burns film effect, a technique to add action to still photographs by slowly zooming and panning. Steve Jobs actually asked Burns for permission to use the term “Ken Burns Effect” in his Apple iMovie software.  Oh, he is also known as one of the top documentary film makers of all time with two Oscar nominations, two Grammy Awards and 15 Emmy Awards for his work. His 1994 “Baseball”, a nine-part series on America’s pastime is probably his best known. That is why he edges out the Griffeys as the top Ken associated with Baseball.

It would be nice if I could make this zoom in. Library of Congress Life, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

3. Kenny Rogers
We lost Kenny Rogers in 2020 and he was certainly one of the most influential Kens of all time, selling over 120 million albums and spending over 200 weeks at the top of the US country and pop album charts. In my rules, the Kens can be either living or dead and as we have seen, some Kens have died more than once.  Rogers is best known for his song “The Gambler.” I am not a huge country music fan, but I was a huge fan of Kenny Rogers Roasters, his rotisserie chicken chain that was once headquartered right here in Fort Lauderdale. Unfortunately for Roasters, he sold more albums than chickens. The chain, which once had over 400 locations, declared bankruptcy in 1998, but was sold and still operates in Asia. So even if Kenny Rogers hasn’t come back from the dead, Kenny Rogers Roasters has.  
2. Ken Jennings
Now we get to number 2 who is actually number 1 if we limited the eligibility to actual people. I may be biased as a huge Jeopardy fan, but to me, 74 straight wins on Jeopardy is more impressive than 630 Home Runs, breaking Ali’s jaw, or selling 125 million records and even more chicken. Ken Jennings amassed $2.5 million in winnings during his streak and an additional $2 million in subsequent tournaments. He won the Greatest of All Time Tournament in 2020 and along with Mayim Bialik has taken over hosting duties following the passing of Alex Trebek. After a shaky start, Jennings has settled into his new role and won over fans with his knowledge and humor.  Fans seem to prefer Ken so much that there is even a twitter account @iskenhosting. I will still watch Mayim – she’s good but she’s just not a Ken.   

1. Kenneth Sean Carson
I never knew he had a last name much less a middle. He is a character created in 1961 by Elliott Handler who along with his wife Ruth were the founders of the Mattel Toy Company.  He is better known as the boyfriend of Barbie who was introduced two years earlier. Barbie and Ken were coincidentally the names of Ruth and Elliott’s kids. The dolls were named after the kids and not the other way around.

Photo: Mattel, Inc.

Let’s face it. When you hear the name Ken, you don’t think of unprecedented success on Jeopardy, you don’t think about the guy who broke Ali’s jaw, you don’t think of one of the sweetest swings in baseball, you don’t think about documentaries, you don’t think about “The Gambler” and you certainly don’t think about rotisserie chicken. The name is most frequently associated with a doll who was pretty much an afterthought. Ryan Gosling who plays Ken in the upcoming movie puts it best “If you ever really cared about Ken, you would know that nobody cared about Ken. “This is why his story must be told.” As a Ken myself, that is exactly why I had to tell the story of the Top Ten Kens.

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The Ricky Bobby Principle of Lease Negotiation

If you were hiring an instructor for a course on lease negotiation, chances are you would not choose fictional car racer Ricky Bobby from the movie Talladega Nights. But in commercial real estate and particularly in my specialty, tenant representation, Ricky is spot on:

“If you ain’t first, you’re last.”

In commercial real estate, there is only one winner who gets the deal. There is no silver medal and everybody knows what you can do with participation trophies.  So if you’re not first, you’re last. As Ricky says: “second place is first loser.”

In my career, I have represented both the Landlord/Seller side and the Tenant/Buyer side.  I’ve won some big ones and also lost my share. On the landlord side, there were times I would send a tenant an aggressive proposal to relocate to my building, which they used as leverage to negotiate a renewal at their current location. I saved tenants a lot of money, not to mention time and effort.  I actually thought I could start charging for that service. That would be preferable to a shelf full of silver medals and participation trophies.  

These days, I spend most of my time on the Tenant/Buyer side. On a recent assignment, after touring 5 properties, I let a landlord’s representative know that he was our second choice. The prices and locations were comparable, but his space would take longer to build out, it had less natural light than the first choice, and it was lacking a kitchenette.

His response, as expected, was “what can I do to get into first place?” That is exacly what I want to hear. One of the most important aspects of tenant representation is to create competition, so  landlords are bidding on my clients’ business.

Is the landlord going to cut some more windows in the exterior of the building to create more natural light?

Seriously doubt it.

Will he spend the money to add a kitchenette to his space?

Possibly.

Will he drop his rate by a dollar or two per square foot, or possibly offer some free rent?

Probably.

Does my client want to lease in his building?

Highly unlikely.

Can I go back to my first choice and tell him that the competition has dropped his rate by a dollar and offered two months free?

Absolutely.

So landlords and sellers fully understand the Ricky Bobby principle: If you’re not first, you’re last. And just like Ricky, they will drive the deal much more aggressively to get there.

As a tenant representative, one of the biggest values I bring is to create competition, ensuring my clients get the best deal on the ideal space for their business – because landlords know, “if you ain’t first, you’re last.”

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What Makes Florida Unique? Sales Tax On Commercial Rent – But Changes on the Way

If you asked me what makes Florida unique, I would probably say our reputation for strange and unusual news stories. But today, I’d like to focus on something completely different affecting business in our State. Florida is also unique as the only state charging sales tax on commercial leases. It should also be noted that we are one of only eight states with no state income tax. But the sales tax does put Florida at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to attracting corporate relocations.

That is about to change.  Two years ago, on April 19, 2021 our governor signed Senate Bill 50. The bill expanded sales tax on online purchases, but also plotted a path to reduce the state sales tax on rent from the current 5.5 percent to 2 percent. (plus a 1% surtax in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties) That is projected to save Florida businesses approximately $1 billion per year.

Just as I was about to post this article, it changed again. On May 5, 2023 the State House and Senate unanimously passed House Bill 7063, which upon approval from the Governor, will reduce the tax from 5.5% to 4.5% effective in December 2023. 

But the $1 billion question remains: When will the full reduction to 2% take effect? As a commercial tenant representation specialist, I am very interested in anything that will save my clients money. But after an extensive search, I couldn’t find an answer. So, as a former market research guru, I rolled out my yoga mat and did the investigation myself.  

Source: @Tax Foundation @BusinessInsider

The reduction in SB50 is tied to the Florida Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund. As of March 2020, the state had $4.07 billion in the Fund.  But unemployment benefits due to COVID drained the fund to a low of $623 million in April 2021. Senate Bill 50 stipulates that the sales tax reduction will commence 2 months after the fund balance exceeds the pre-COVID level of $4,071,519,600 .

Are we there yet? Not quite, but according to my research, in addition to the 1 percent reduction this December, Florida commercial tenants will see an additional 2.5%  reduction on their rent bills around August of 2024. 

Upon passage of Senate Bill 50, the State began to apply funds from the online sales tax to the Fund. I spoke to the economist in charge of fund projections at the Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research. She referred me to the results of the State’s Consensus Estimating Conferences which are posted online. The most recent forecast was published on March 2, 2023.  It showed that the fund balance had increased to $2.56 million and that the State will be allocating $90 million to the fund every month. According to the March forecast, the balance will cross the $4.07 billion mark in May 2024, which means that the reduction would take effect in August.  Last week, I called my contact in Tallahassee and confirmed that my interpretation was correct.

Figures in millions (000,000)

But is that projection accurate? At the moment, there are more jobs than applicants in Florida indicating that the state should not be paying out a lot of unemployment claims. While no one could have predicted COVID and there is the potential for an economic downturn or even a natural disaster, it would take some unforeseen event to significantly alter the state’s projections. I also confirmed that the projected December tax reduction will not affect the projections from March 2nd.

When I first started researching this topic back in January, the latest forecast was from August 2022. The August forecast projected a balance in March 2023 of $2.52 billion and showed it crossing the $4.07 billion threshold in May 2024 with a balance of $4.2 billion. The state economist told me to watch for the upcoming March 2023 forecast (above) which I recently downloaded and reviewed.

As of March 2023, the balance was at $2.56 Billion, 1.02% higher than the August 2022 forecast. More importantly, it showed that my friends at the State were highly accurate with their projections.  I am therefore reasonably confident in the March forecast, which projects that the 2% state sales tax on commercial rents will take effect in August 2024.  

So hats off to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, and a thank you to our governor, whether you love him or hate him. All signs point toward a sales tax reduction in 2024, providing corporations additional incentive to bring high-paying jobs to Florida. Now if we can only get our residents to stop throwing alligators into drive-thru windows or breaking into their neighbor’s house to pet their cat.

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The Scariest Picture in Commercial Real Estate Tech – And Why I’m Not Scared

The Spectrum Office Building is owned by one of our best clients. It’s our building, but the logo on the bottom right makes it CoStar’s Picture.

What is the scariest thing you’ve ever seen? For me, it may the sight of The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore in Florida during Hurricane Season. But if you’re in Commercial Real Estate Tech, that may rank a close second to the dreaded CoStar watermark. That little white star logo in the corner of their copyrighted photos has launched billions of dollars in lawsuits.

If you’re in Commercial Real Estate, you know CoStar. Others may know their more public-facing division, LoopNet, which they acquired in 2011. I pay around $4,000 per year for my subscription to CoStar’s comprehensive database of commercial properties and frankly I can’t survive without it. As a tenant representative, the first thing I do when I get a new client requirement is search for potential locations on CoStar and generate a market survey for my client.

Jim in Fort Myers with his latest innovation – the batting helmet

CoStar/LoopNet commands over 80 percent of the commercial real estate search volume online and has a virtual lock on the top Google position on any commercial real estate search. Google your office address and you’ll see what I mean. There are competitors, and my apologies to CREXI, Yardi/Commercial Café, VTS, Moody’s and my own partners at TenantBase. But even now, 12 years after I wrote my first blog post on the subject, no one even comes close to CoStar for commercial real estate information.

It’s no surprise that when I Google my company’s office address, Loopnet has the first two results.

Why is that? CoStar isn’t perfect, but they are still the best in the industry. They work hard to protect that position, which includes leveraging the legal resources of a $31 billion company. The best known case was Xceligent, a company created as part of the FTC’s agreement to allow CoStar to acquire Loopnet. CoStar wound up suing Xceligent for $500 million in 2016 for using copyrighted photos with that terrifying Costar watermark. Xceligent filed for bankruptcy shortly thereafter.

Which leads us to the most recent case. CREXI is one of the newer competitors attempting to chip away at CoStar’s dominance. They have an impressive platform with a growing customer base. I am seeing more and more inquiries from them. But I track marketing for my company and we still get around 8 to 10 LoopNet inquiries for every one off CREXI.

But CoStar still sees CREXI as a threat. In December 2022, CoStar sued CREXI for using 50,395 of its copyrighted images, which they value at $50,000 per image, so the suit would be in the $2.5 billion range. CREXI fired back with counterclaims alleging CoStar was engaging in anti-competitive activity, but those counterclaims were dismissed.

The suit, which is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024, alleges that CREXI hired a group in India to collect property images to post to their platform, of which at least 50,395 were copyrighted by CoStar. I could be wrong, but I am highly skeptical.

CoStar actively sources their data with their staff photographers shooting over a million original and proprietary photos per year and with its researchers making over 24,000 phone calls annually to brokers and owners. CREXI, in contrast, is primarily crowd-sourced. My fellow brokers and our marketing teams upload our own photos to the CREXI platform. My regional director for CREXI verified that at least on a local level, CREXI does not actively upload pictures. My guess is that any CoStar watermarks showing up on CREXI come from brokers who downloaded photos from CoStar or Loopnet and then re-uploaded them to CREXI, unaware that they were doing something illegal. CoStar’s Terms of Service (does anyone ever read them?) allows brokers to use CoStar images in their marketing but striclty forbids thier use on competitive website.

I don’t understand why CREXI would employ a back-office in India to upload pictures. CREXI is well aware of the sad tale of Xceligent and wouldn’t repeat the same mistakes. I personally worked for a real estate tech startup where we had a company policy to check our uploaded photos every week to make sure we didn’t have any with the CoStar watermark.

Back then, the little white star was a source of fear. Today, as a tenant representative, it doesn’t scare me at all. Frankly, I welcome CoStar’s litigious nature. I stated earlier that CoStar isn’t perfect, they are far from it. As a tenant rep, I have two rules when it comes to finding space for my clients.

Someday, there may be a fully accurate online listing of available office, warehouse, and retail space. But it will take a major disruptor to effect this change. CoStar is doing its best to make sure this never happens. And even if it did, there are still off-market properties, pocket listings and distressed tenants that are not readily accessible to the public. About half of the spaces I’ve found for tenants over the past 12 months were not on CoStar or CREXI. Local market knowledge and local market relationships are as important as online listings when it comes to finding space. So the need for tenants and buyers to have professional representation isn’t going away very soon. And finding space is only the beginning when it comes to professional tenant representation. I help my clients to negotiate the best terms while avoiding hidden pitfalls that may cost them in the long term. I also help on design and space planning, work with government agencies and direct my clients to preferred vendors to simplify the relocation process.

So I will continue to follow the battle between CoStar and CREXI. But the competitive landscape in Commercial Real Estate data has not changed much since CoStar acquired LoopNet in 2011, and I don’t expect any major changes in the near term.

So to recap, I am a proud customer of both CoStar and CREXI, I don’t fear the watermark, I provide a great service to my tenant representation clients and let’s hope Jim Cantore is nowhere near South Florida in 2023.

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A Holiday Tradition Like No Other – The Boca Raton Bowl?

It’s holiday time in South Florida. While we will never have a white Christmas, South Florida has its own holiday traditions. In Miami, we have Art Basel and the Orange Bowl Festival. Fort Lauderdale has its Winterfest Boat Parade.  Meanwhile Boca Raton has its own tradition dating all the way back to 2014.  No, it’s not a star-studded salute to the early bird special at the Olive Garden, it’s the annual Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl at Boca’s Florida Atlantic University Stadium.

In a watered-down schedule of 43 college football bowl games, 86 teams now get a coveted invitation to the postseason. The 2022 Boca Raton Bowl featured an epic matchup of #77  Toledo vs. #82 Liberty.  I make it a point to record ESPN’s National Telecast of the Boca Raton Bowl every year.  But just like the Super Bowl, I pay special attention to the commercials.

I always fast forward to the annual ad produced by the Boca Raton Office of Economic Development and Innovation. While the game may have some importance to the alumni and students of the participating universities as well as the few degenerates wagering on it, this really is a kind of Super Bowl for Boca Raton. 

It’s a chance for the city to get a moment in the national spotlight. If one billionaire CEO or hedge fund manager stops to watch the ad while flipping through ESPN, it just may trigger a corporate relocation that can benefit our entire region.

Fort Lauderdale Winterfest 2022

Fort Lauderdale Winterfest 2022

This year’s theme was “You Can Have It All”, highlighting our beaches, our colleges, our lifestyle, our sunshine and our 12 million square feet of office space. As someone who leases those 12 million square feet, I don’t have strong feelings for Toledo or Liberty. But I am a huge fan of Boca Raton and I am rooting hard for those CEOs to bring high paying jobs to our community and lease lots of office and warehouse space.

For what it’s worth, the Toledo defeated Liberty 21-19, and may well have secured themselves a national ranking in the top sixty or seventy. But the real winner is Boca Raton and South Florida (and maybe Olive Garden) for the chance to promote our community to a national audience.  In the 30 seconds of the game that I watched, I also heard the announcer refer to a directional sign at Florida Atlantic Stadium showing it was 1.8 miles to the beach. Another win for Boca! But was anybody really watching? We’ll see.

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Which is Worth More?

 

Like most of you, I generally start my day checking my email. I see what I need to do to push my deals forward and check for any new properties that can meet a client’s requirement. I was excited to see an email alert for a warehouse in Dania Beach. It is a clean, modern facility in a great location and looked perfect for one of my clients. But I nearly knocked over my coffee when I saw the $9.2 million price tag which was $369 per square foot.

This type of property was selling for under $100 per foot a couple of years ago. I sold one at the end of 2021 for $156 per foot and we are now seeing warehouse properties trade in the low $200s. But $369 per square foot was the highest I’d ever seen. At least until I scrolled to another one in Boynton Beach at $426. 

Are they worth it? It wouldn’t surprise me if someone pays it, and I assume there is data to support those numbers. Would I recommend these deals to a client? No, not unless they had some unusual compelling need to purchase.

I have no problem with sellers trying to push the envelope, but with over 30 years in the business and the first 15 of those as a market analyst, I think I know when they are pushing too far.  I wondered what else you could buy for $369 per square foot. I quickly pulled up the largest recent office sales in South Florida on CoStar and came up with 2 sales in Miami from June 2021 that support my point.

Warehouse on Market for $369 per sf

Image 1 of 12

The 692.000 square foot One Biscayne Tower sold for $225 million which is $325 per square foot while the 822,000 sf Citigroup Center, sold for $270 million or $368 per square foot. These are two iconic South Florida properties. One Biscayne was Miami’s tallest building when it was completed in 1972. It features spectacular views of Biscayne Bay and has been continuously renovated and updated to maintain its Class-A status. Citigroup Center with its distinctive marble exterior and adjacent Intercontinental Hotel is another of Miami’s premier addresses. I remember seeing Ronald Reagan speak there back in 1986. With one notable recent exception, a venue for a presidential address tends to be a prestigious property.

So why spend more on a warehouse than a trophy Class-A office tower? First, we are talking about a $9.2 million warehouse rather than a $200 million office building. There is certainly more demand at $9.2 million then there is at $200 million. And it costs more and requires more labor to operate a Class-A office tower than it does a warehouse.  In addition, the South Florida industrial market is significantly stronger with vacancies in the 3 percent range while office is in the mid-teens. And while industrial demand is soaring, office demand is still suffering from a post-COVID hangover.  

My opinion is that the industrial market is peaking, while office is just beginning to recover. While there is much concern about recent economic news, it hasn’t impacted the flow of new residents into our market and demand for space remains strong.  That being said, I can’t justify paying $369 per square foot for a warehouse. I would rather take my chances on  an office building. But there has been a noticeable shift in the market. It seems the world has turned upside down and it’s no longer unusual for a big concrete box to be more valuable than a gleaming marble tower.